BearDown

Go Bears Go!

The January 10, 2026 Wild Card game between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers was a near-perfect illustration of why true uncertainty is impossible to price cleanly: before kickoff, the game was essentially a coin flip—two rivals, similar stakes, and no obvious edge.

Once the game started, the Packers dominated most of the first three quarters and made the outcome feel almost settled, with momentum, execution, and scoreboard all pointing firmly in one direction. Nothing really changed fundamentally until the fourth quarter, when the game suddenly became dramatic.

This is Why We Don't Bet

Momentum Lied

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Bear Down Chicago Bears

When Bears finally turned the game around

Lessons for Investment

Just because outcomes appear stable for a period of time does not mean uncertainty has disappeared. Short-run dominance often creates an illusion of predictability, tempting people to extrapolate recent performance as if it were super informational.

Reacting to these temporary patterns is precisely how investors end up overtrading, overbetting, and overpaying for confidence that was not statistically justified. In both markets and games, discipline is not about acting often; it is about knowing when not to act.

Lessons for Life

Never give up. But also never confuse the present moment with the final outcome. Progress is rarely linear, and long stretches of apparent stagnation or disadvantage do not imply failure. What matters is staying engaged long enough for uncertainty to resolve in your favor.

Resilience is not blind optimism; it is the willingness to keep showing up, adjusting, and believing that today’s scoreboard is not destiny. Just as in investing, patience, humility, and persistence often matter more than short-term wins.

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